Preview by Will Reilly
The new season off to a winning start with the main recommendation of Everton (+2) coming up at 7/10 in last Saturday’s Merseyside derby. The stats strongly suggested that a draw was likely (the game ended 0-0) and, as you may be aware, these previews are very much stats-based.
Here are some key stats then on Man City v Tottenham, with some bet recommendations at the end of the piece.
Ahead of the weekend’s games being played, this is second versus third in the Premier League table, with the reigning champions taking on a Spurs side rejuvenated since the arrival of head coach Antonio Conte.
It’s a chance for Spurs to lay down a marker for the season, with a key question being can they contain the prolific Erling Haaland? In Harry Kane, they have a top-class striker of their own.
These are the only two sides in the Premier League that have yet to lose a match this season. It is a great way to bring down the curtain on Saturday’s Premier League matches.
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- It’s four wins and two draws from their six league matches so far this season for City, with three clean sheets and 20 goals scored, ten of them by Erling Haaland.
- In fact, City have lost just one of their last 34 league games, which, as things would have it, was a 3-2 home defeat by Spurs in February.
- City have kept 18 clean sheets in the 34 games referred to above. In 16 of those games they have scored 3-or-more goals.
- They have won their last seven seven league games and 14 of their last 16 when playing at home.
- They have scored in their last 17 home league games.
- Erling Haaland has exploded onto the Premier League scene with 10 goals in his first six starts.
- Like City, it’s four wins and two draws this season in the league for Spurs, with 12 goals scored but just two clean sheets.
- Spurs are unbeaten in their last 12 league games and have lost just two of their last 19 games in all competitions, scoring in 17 of them and keeping a clean sheet in nine.
- They have scored three-or-more goals in eight of their last 19 league games, but in only one when on the road (v Aston Villa, 0-4, April).
- However, Tottenham beat City 3-2 at the Etihad last season and also won at home against them (1-0).
LEAGUE HEAD-TO-HEADS AT THE ETIHAD STADIUM
- This century Tottenham have a good record when visiting City in the league, winning nine of the 21 encounters and losing eight.
- Tottenham have scored in 16 of the 21 matches, as have City, and have scored two-or-more goals in four of the last seven.
- City have scored two-or-more goals in nine of the last eleven home league games they’ve played against Spurs.
- You have to go back to September 2003 to find the last time this fixture ended 0-0. In eleven of the last 16, both sides have scored.
- İlkay Gündoğan has scored four goals in his last five starts in this fixture (when City have been at home).
- Harry Kane has scored three goals in his last six starts in this fixture (when City have been at home).
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Absent through injury will be Aymeric Laporte, John Stones and Kyle Walker.
Lucas Moura (calf) will be missing for Spurs.
VERDICT / TIPS:
- The stats suggest that the match will not be drawn.
- Much as Tottenham have a good record in this fixture (see Head To Heads), City have dominated in recent years, winning eight of the last 12. For me, that points to a City win.
- In terms of goals-scorers, İlkay Gündoğan and Harry Kane have to be uppermost in your thoughts, as does Erling Haaland, who, as mentioned above, has exploded onto the Premier League scene.
- Man City to win, although 2/5 is a little short. City to win and both teams to score looks better value at 8/5. I expect City to score at least twice.
- As it’s a DOUBLE THE ODDS on FIRST GOALSCORER BETS match with us (see pic below), you have to look at İlkay Gündoğan (8/1 to score first, 5/2 to score anytime), Erling Haaland (11/5 to score first, 1/2 anytime) and Harry Kane (13/2 and 21/10).
- Over 2.5 goals in the game look good but, at 2/5, might be a little short for some tastes.
- If you’re feeling ambitious, Gündoğan to score first with City to win 2-1 is 40/1.
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*Odds were correct at time of publishing the article